Oscars 2025 Predictions: The Race Is On
The 97th Academy Awards are around the corner, set for this Sunday, March 2nd at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. With ten films duking it out for Best Picture this year, the competition’s tight – but not as tight as some might think.
After reviewing the stats, awards momentum, and industry buzz, one film stands above the rest in our Oscars 2025 predictions: Sean Baker’s “Anora.” But why is this indie darling positioned to beat out heavyweight contenders like “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist“? Let’s break it down.
Oscars 2025 Predictions: Meet Your Best Picture Contenders
This year’s lineup packs a serious punch. Here’s your cheat sheet for the nominees in our Oscars 2025 predictions:
| Movie | Director | What It’s About | Oscar Nominations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anora | Sean Baker | Brooklyn stripper marries Russian oligarch’s son | 8 |
| Emilia Pérez | Jacques Audiard | Mexican cartel leader transitions to live as a woman | 13 |
| The Brutalist | Brady Corbet | Hungarian-Jewish architect in post-war America | 10 |
| A Complete Unknown | James Mangold | Bob Dylan biopic | 6 |
| Conclave | Edward Berger | Thriller about papal election | 9 |
| Nickel Boys | RaMell Ross | Civil Rights-era drama | 5 |
| I’m Still Here | Walter Salles | Brazilian drama | 4 |
| The Substance | Coralie Fargeat | Body-horror thriller | 6 |
| Dune: Part Two | Denis Villeneuve | Sci-fi epic | 9 |
| Wicked | Jon M. Chu | Musical adaptation | 10 |
Why “Anora” Leads Our Oscars 2025 Predictions
Let’s not beat around the bush – “Anora” is primed to win, and here’s why:
The Guild Awards Speak Volumes
In the Oscars 2025 predictions game, nothing talks louder than guild awards. “Anora” snagged both the PGA (Producers Guild) and DGA (Directors Guild) Awards. That combo? It’s practically a crystal ball for Best Picture.
Here’s the thing – 16 of the last 21 PGA winners went on to take Best Picture. When you add a DGA win on top of that, the odds shoot through the roof. The industry pros have spoken, and they’re backing “Anora” in a big way.
It’s Got That Perfect Oscar Story
“Anora” hits that sweet spot Oscar voters can’t resist – it’s both accessible and artsy. Sean Baker’s tale of a Brooklyn stripper who finds herself in an unexpected marriage to a Russian oligarch’s son mixes comedy with drama in a way that feels fresh yet familiar.
Mikey Madison’s performance as Anora has critics raving, giving the Academy that emotional anchor they love to reward. At $7.5 million box office, it’s punching way above its indie weight class too.
The Competition: Why They’ll Come Up Short
“Emilia Pérez” – The Nomination Leader With Baggage
With 13 nominations, “Emilia Pérez” leads the pack on paper. This musical drama about a Mexican cartel leader transitioning to live as a woman has serious artistic credentials and took home four Golden Globes.
So why won’t it win according to our Oscars 2025 predictions? In two words: ongoing controversy.
The film’s been criticized for its portrayal of Mexico, with many calling it stereotypical. Then there’s the transgender representation issues, with GLAAD publicly calling it “a step backward.” Add in lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón’s controversial social media history, and you’ve got too much baggage for voters to ignore.
Netflix’s platform means it didn’t have the theatrical impact of other contenders either. Academy members still tend to favor the theatrical experience when picking their ultimate winner.
“The Brutalist” – Too Niche, Too Controversial
Brady Corbet’s 3.5-hour epic about a Hungarian-Jewish architect in post-war America has critical acclaim and Adrien Brody’s knockout performance going for it. It picked up the Silver Lion at Venice and has 10 nominations.
But two things will keep it from the top prize: its AI controversy and accessibility issues.
The film caught heat for using AI to enhance Hungarian accents – a technical choice that rubbed many industry veterans the wrong way. And let’s be real, a 3.5-hour art film, even one shown in 70mm, faces an uphill battle with broader Academy voters who favor more accessible storytelling.
The Dark Horse in Our Oscars 2025 Predictions: “Conclave”
If anyone’s going to upset “Anora,” keep an eye on “Conclave.” Edward Berger’s papal election thriller just took home the BAFTA for Best Film, which occasionally signals an Oscar surprise. With nine nominations and strong critical support, it’s the sleeper pick if “Anora” somehow stumbles.
Why These Oscars 2025 Predictions Matter For Movie Fans
Oscar predictions aren’t just industry gossip – they reflect changing tastes and values in American cinema. “Anora” winning would cement Sean Baker’s rise from indie darling to mainstream force, showing that smaller, character-driven films still have a place at Hollywood’s biggest table.
For viewers, it shows the Academy embracing stories that blend comedy and drama, that feel authentic rather than manufactured for awards consideration.
How To Watch The Nominees Before Sunday
Want to catch up before the ceremony? Here’s where you can watch the frontrunners in our Oscars 2025 predictions::
- “Anora” – In theaters and premium VOD
- “Emilia Pérez” – Streaming on Netflix
- “The Brutalist” – Limited theatrical release, not yet on streaming
- “Conclave” – In theaters and premium VOD
Final Prediction: “Anora” Takes The Gold
When you look at the guild support, critical reception, and lack of major controversy, “Anora” stands as the clear frontrunner. While “Emilia Pérez” has the most nominations, and “The Brutalist” offers artistic heft, neither can overcome the momentum behind Baker’s indie gem.
The race might be closer than in previous years, but all signs point to “Anora” collecting that gold statue come Sunday night. Sean Baker’s journey from the fringes of independent cinema to the Academy Awards stage is about to reach its peak.
What do you think? Will “Anora” take home Best Picture, or are we in for a surprise? Drop your predictions in the comments below.
The Oscar Ceremony: What To Expect
The 97th Academy Awards kick off at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT this Sunday. Jimmy Kimmel returns as host for the fifth time, promising to keep things moving at a decent clip – though we all know these shows tend to run long.
Confirmed presenters include past winners like Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, and Ke Huy Quan, plus a musical performance from Billie Eilish that’s generating serious buzz.
Whether you’re hosting an Oscar party or just watching solo, the Best Picture category is typically saved for last – meaning you’ll have to stay up to see if our Oscars 2025 predictions come true.
These Oscars 2025 predictions are based on industry trends, critical reception, and awards momentum as of February 28, 2025. The Oscar race can sometimes surprise us, so watch the ceremony this Sunday to see how it all plays out!
